Friday, January 28, 2005
Your Best Isn't Enough
If I had to build an equation or model for success, I think it would be this:
First you have to figure out where your maximum potential (MP) stands when compared to a level of success. If your MP is below the level of success you are trying to reach, then obviously you will never get there and your quest is a giant waste of time. This happens a lot I think. Anyway, after you know your MP, you need to figure how much you are going underachieve. Everyone is going to underachieve in the long run. You hear about people overachieving, which is possible, but is always an aberration and occurs only for a relatively brief time period - like Mischa Barton acting well for one episode. So nobody is perfect; we're not machines... yet, so people will always underachieve on a task rather than work to their MP, aside from the rare event we talked about a few sentences ago. In the equation, your underachievement will be written as a percentage and represented with a "U." Example, you work at 75% of your MP, it will be entered as .75 in the equation.
You also need to factor in the situation and environment. Your MP is based on ideal conditions, which will never exist. So you also need to take into consideration the best possible conditions (BPC) for your situation, then figure out what you are really going to experience, your actual conditions (AC), which is written as a decimal, like U is.
So now we have this:
{MP(U) + BPC(AC)} / 2 = Your expected success.
Let's put this to use. Let's find out how the Twins will do this year.
Their maximum potential is to win 162 games, every team has this. Their underachievement level will be based on the players on the roster, the players lost and gained, and their performance over the past three seasons. Over the past three seasons they have averaged just over 90 wins a season. But this year they lost the left side of their infield, and have only one competent replacement in place. They also have Joe Mauer back, an improvement from Henry Blanco. Justin Morneau will play a whole season at first, instead of the limited time he saw last year. Morneau and Mauer playing full time will bolster the teams offense considerably. Morneau hit 19 homers in less than half a season played and Mauer can be expected to hit 25 homers and 80 RBI's, which is much improved from Blanco's numbers. While their offensive contributions will be noticed, they are both replacing excellent defensive players. Fortunately for the Twins, Mauer will be able to replace Blano, maybe even succeed him very soon as a defensive catcher, and while Morneau can't replace Doug Mearjknajkfnsdtz at first, he is very competent. The starting rotation and bullpen have remained mostly intact.
So, offensively they are improved, defensively they may be a little worse and pitching should remain the same, if not a little better. I am going to set their U at .7, which will max them out at 113 wins for the season.
Under BPC, the Twins would win 113 games this season, a huge number. But we won't be dealing with BPC; we will be dealing the AC, actual conditions. What goes into this? The competition, possible injuries, the Metrodome exploding (please?). The AL Central is improved from last year I think. The Indians have gotten better, the White Sox worse, Detroit better, and KC about the same, probably worse. The Twins won the division by 9.5 games last year. Injuries are unpredictable and hard to factor in, the only thing you can take into consideration is players who are prone to injury. The Twins have only one worry here, Mauer's knee. That alone will knock about 5 percent off the BPC percentage. The Division being improved will knock off another 5 percent. Then you have to take off another 10 percent for unexpected injuries and for the question of who is going to play SS. The AC is .8.
The Equation: {162(.7) + 100(.8)} / 2 = 96.7 wins. The Twins should expect to win 96 games this season. There you have it.
This whole concept all kind of leaped into my head at once when I woke up from a nap today. It might not make sense, but here it is. Take or leave it, I care not. I'm still in a little bit of a sleep fog.
I'm not proofing this entry.
I'm not claiming it be good or accurate.
But I think it's interesting that we all have a set point where physical or mental limitations disable us from achieving more. And only under perfect circumstances can we achieve at our maximum potential for an extended period of time. That is the core of this whole thing and that's what I'll stick to.
Go Hockey Team. I'm out.
Until Tomorrow.
First you have to figure out where your maximum potential (MP) stands when compared to a level of success. If your MP is below the level of success you are trying to reach, then obviously you will never get there and your quest is a giant waste of time. This happens a lot I think. Anyway, after you know your MP, you need to figure how much you are going underachieve. Everyone is going to underachieve in the long run. You hear about people overachieving, which is possible, but is always an aberration and occurs only for a relatively brief time period - like Mischa Barton acting well for one episode. So nobody is perfect; we're not machines... yet, so people will always underachieve on a task rather than work to their MP, aside from the rare event we talked about a few sentences ago. In the equation, your underachievement will be written as a percentage and represented with a "U." Example, you work at 75% of your MP, it will be entered as .75 in the equation.
You also need to factor in the situation and environment. Your MP is based on ideal conditions, which will never exist. So you also need to take into consideration the best possible conditions (BPC) for your situation, then figure out what you are really going to experience, your actual conditions (AC), which is written as a decimal, like U is.
So now we have this:
{MP(U) + BPC(AC)} / 2 = Your expected success.
Let's put this to use. Let's find out how the Twins will do this year.
Their maximum potential is to win 162 games, every team has this. Their underachievement level will be based on the players on the roster, the players lost and gained, and their performance over the past three seasons. Over the past three seasons they have averaged just over 90 wins a season. But this year they lost the left side of their infield, and have only one competent replacement in place. They also have Joe Mauer back, an improvement from Henry Blanco. Justin Morneau will play a whole season at first, instead of the limited time he saw last year. Morneau and Mauer playing full time will bolster the teams offense considerably. Morneau hit 19 homers in less than half a season played and Mauer can be expected to hit 25 homers and 80 RBI's, which is much improved from Blanco's numbers. While their offensive contributions will be noticed, they are both replacing excellent defensive players. Fortunately for the Twins, Mauer will be able to replace Blano, maybe even succeed him very soon as a defensive catcher, and while Morneau can't replace Doug Mearjknajkfnsdtz at first, he is very competent. The starting rotation and bullpen have remained mostly intact.
So, offensively they are improved, defensively they may be a little worse and pitching should remain the same, if not a little better. I am going to set their U at .7, which will max them out at 113 wins for the season.
Under BPC, the Twins would win 113 games this season, a huge number. But we won't be dealing with BPC; we will be dealing the AC, actual conditions. What goes into this? The competition, possible injuries, the Metrodome exploding (please?). The AL Central is improved from last year I think. The Indians have gotten better, the White Sox worse, Detroit better, and KC about the same, probably worse. The Twins won the division by 9.5 games last year. Injuries are unpredictable and hard to factor in, the only thing you can take into consideration is players who are prone to injury. The Twins have only one worry here, Mauer's knee. That alone will knock about 5 percent off the BPC percentage. The Division being improved will knock off another 5 percent. Then you have to take off another 10 percent for unexpected injuries and for the question of who is going to play SS. The AC is .8.
The Equation: {162(.7) + 100(.8)} / 2 = 96.7 wins. The Twins should expect to win 96 games this season. There you have it.
This whole concept all kind of leaped into my head at once when I woke up from a nap today. It might not make sense, but here it is. Take or leave it, I care not. I'm still in a little bit of a sleep fog.
I'm not proofing this entry.
I'm not claiming it be good or accurate.
But I think it's interesting that we all have a set point where physical or mental limitations disable us from achieving more. And only under perfect circumstances can we achieve at our maximum potential for an extended period of time. That is the core of this whole thing and that's what I'll stick to.
Go Hockey Team. I'm out.
Until Tomorrow.
