Friday, January 28, 2005
Your Best Isn't Enough
If I had to build an equation or model for success, I think it would be this:
First you have to figure out where your maximum potential (MP) stands when compared to a level of success. If your MP is below the level of success you are trying to reach, then obviously you will never get there and your quest is a giant waste of time. This happens a lot I think. Anyway, after you know your MP, you need to figure how much you are going underachieve. Everyone is going to underachieve in the long run. You hear about people overachieving, which is possible, but is always an aberration and occurs only for a relatively brief time period - like Mischa Barton acting well for one episode. So nobody is perfect; we're not machines... yet, so people will always underachieve on a task rather than work to their MP, aside from the rare event we talked about a few sentences ago. In the equation, your underachievement will be written as a percentage and represented with a "U." Example, you work at 75% of your MP, it will be entered as .75 in the equation.
You also need to factor in the situation and environment. Your MP is based on ideal conditions, which will never exist. So you also need to take into consideration the best possible conditions (BPC) for your situation, then figure out what you are really going to experience, your actual conditions (AC), which is written as a decimal, like U is.
So now we have this:
{MP(U) + BPC(AC)} / 2 = Your expected success.
Let's put this to use. Let's find out how the Twins will do this year.
Their maximum potential is to win 162 games, every team has this. Their underachievement level will be based on the players on the roster, the players lost and gained, and their performance over the past three seasons. Over the past three seasons they have averaged just over 90 wins a season. But this year they lost the left side of their infield, and have only one competent replacement in place. They also have Joe Mauer back, an improvement from Henry Blanco. Justin Morneau will play a whole season at first, instead of the limited time he saw last year. Morneau and Mauer playing full time will bolster the teams offense considerably. Morneau hit 19 homers in less than half a season played and Mauer can be expected to hit 25 homers and 80 RBI's, which is much improved from Blanco's numbers. While their offensive contributions will be noticed, they are both replacing excellent defensive players. Fortunately for the Twins, Mauer will be able to replace Blano, maybe even succeed him very soon as a defensive catcher, and while Morneau can't replace Doug Mearjknajkfnsdtz at first, he is very competent. The starting rotation and bullpen have remained mostly intact.
So, offensively they are improved, defensively they may be a little worse and pitching should remain the same, if not a little better. I am going to set their U at .7, which will max them out at 113 wins for the season.
Under BPC, the Twins would win 113 games this season, a huge number. But we won't be dealing with BPC; we will be dealing the AC, actual conditions. What goes into this? The competition, possible injuries, the Metrodome exploding (please?). The AL Central is improved from last year I think. The Indians have gotten better, the White Sox worse, Detroit better, and KC about the same, probably worse. The Twins won the division by 9.5 games last year. Injuries are unpredictable and hard to factor in, the only thing you can take into consideration is players who are prone to injury. The Twins have only one worry here, Mauer's knee. That alone will knock about 5 percent off the BPC percentage. The Division being improved will knock off another 5 percent. Then you have to take off another 10 percent for unexpected injuries and for the question of who is going to play SS. The AC is .8.
The Equation: {162(.7) + 100(.8)} / 2 = 96.7 wins. The Twins should expect to win 96 games this season. There you have it.
This whole concept all kind of leaped into my head at once when I woke up from a nap today. It might not make sense, but here it is. Take or leave it, I care not. I'm still in a little bit of a sleep fog.
I'm not proofing this entry.
I'm not claiming it be good or accurate.
But I think it's interesting that we all have a set point where physical or mental limitations disable us from achieving more. And only under perfect circumstances can we achieve at our maximum potential for an extended period of time. That is the core of this whole thing and that's what I'll stick to.
Go Hockey Team. I'm out.
Until Tomorrow.
First you have to figure out where your maximum potential (MP) stands when compared to a level of success. If your MP is below the level of success you are trying to reach, then obviously you will never get there and your quest is a giant waste of time. This happens a lot I think. Anyway, after you know your MP, you need to figure how much you are going underachieve. Everyone is going to underachieve in the long run. You hear about people overachieving, which is possible, but is always an aberration and occurs only for a relatively brief time period - like Mischa Barton acting well for one episode. So nobody is perfect; we're not machines... yet, so people will always underachieve on a task rather than work to their MP, aside from the rare event we talked about a few sentences ago. In the equation, your underachievement will be written as a percentage and represented with a "U." Example, you work at 75% of your MP, it will be entered as .75 in the equation.
You also need to factor in the situation and environment. Your MP is based on ideal conditions, which will never exist. So you also need to take into consideration the best possible conditions (BPC) for your situation, then figure out what you are really going to experience, your actual conditions (AC), which is written as a decimal, like U is.
So now we have this:
{MP(U) + BPC(AC)} / 2 = Your expected success.
Let's put this to use. Let's find out how the Twins will do this year.
Their maximum potential is to win 162 games, every team has this. Their underachievement level will be based on the players on the roster, the players lost and gained, and their performance over the past three seasons. Over the past three seasons they have averaged just over 90 wins a season. But this year they lost the left side of their infield, and have only one competent replacement in place. They also have Joe Mauer back, an improvement from Henry Blanco. Justin Morneau will play a whole season at first, instead of the limited time he saw last year. Morneau and Mauer playing full time will bolster the teams offense considerably. Morneau hit 19 homers in less than half a season played and Mauer can be expected to hit 25 homers and 80 RBI's, which is much improved from Blanco's numbers. While their offensive contributions will be noticed, they are both replacing excellent defensive players. Fortunately for the Twins, Mauer will be able to replace Blano, maybe even succeed him very soon as a defensive catcher, and while Morneau can't replace Doug Mearjknajkfnsdtz at first, he is very competent. The starting rotation and bullpen have remained mostly intact.
So, offensively they are improved, defensively they may be a little worse and pitching should remain the same, if not a little better. I am going to set their U at .7, which will max them out at 113 wins for the season.
Under BPC, the Twins would win 113 games this season, a huge number. But we won't be dealing with BPC; we will be dealing the AC, actual conditions. What goes into this? The competition, possible injuries, the Metrodome exploding (please?). The AL Central is improved from last year I think. The Indians have gotten better, the White Sox worse, Detroit better, and KC about the same, probably worse. The Twins won the division by 9.5 games last year. Injuries are unpredictable and hard to factor in, the only thing you can take into consideration is players who are prone to injury. The Twins have only one worry here, Mauer's knee. That alone will knock about 5 percent off the BPC percentage. The Division being improved will knock off another 5 percent. Then you have to take off another 10 percent for unexpected injuries and for the question of who is going to play SS. The AC is .8.
The Equation: {162(.7) + 100(.8)} / 2 = 96.7 wins. The Twins should expect to win 96 games this season. There you have it.
This whole concept all kind of leaped into my head at once when I woke up from a nap today. It might not make sense, but here it is. Take or leave it, I care not. I'm still in a little bit of a sleep fog.
I'm not proofing this entry.
I'm not claiming it be good or accurate.
But I think it's interesting that we all have a set point where physical or mental limitations disable us from achieving more. And only under perfect circumstances can we achieve at our maximum potential for an extended period of time. That is the core of this whole thing and that's what I'll stick to.
Go Hockey Team. I'm out.
Until Tomorrow.
In Brief
Alright, it's going to take me a week or so to find a good time write these things now that the new semester has kicked off... stay with me, folks.
A movie with Ice Cube driving around kids that aren't his opened at number 1 on the box office charts last weekend. Our country continues its slow death.
I hope this never happens. Here comes the government again, kids, this time they are after your money if you want to get your tits enlarged. Some states are trying to put a tax on cosmetic surgeries, which should throw up red flags all over the country. Where does this kind of thing stop? This precedent could enable Big Brother to begin trying to tax us on all sorts of "luxury" things. This needs to be ended and the lawmakers trying to pass it need to be relieved of their duties and sent to rural Russia.
So they are going to have an election on Sunday in Iraq. My prediction? 13% turnout. They are, however, doing one thing much better than we do in the U.S. They are voting on a Sunday, rather than on a Tuesday. It seems like common sense would tell you that more people can vote if you hold the election on a day where most don't work, but if we hold the election on a weekday then the people who don't work or who may work night jobs, the people who may need government help more than others, will represent a larger percentage of the voting population than they would if it was held on a weekend. Those people, the ones not working or working low wage jobs, are going to vote for bigger government so they can receive the help they need, which, in turn, allows the government to continue its growth and its intrusion into the lives of Americans. We all want smaller government, even if you don't realize it, you do, take my word on this one. Someone with a giant hand need to come by and slap the government's wrist when they reach into the cookie jar one too many times.
Another Wisconsin wacko... This kid could be up for adoption. Any takers? I could for some poison with my dinner.
I know what some of you are looking for on here this morning... it will come, by class calls me now.
Until Later.
A movie with Ice Cube driving around kids that aren't his opened at number 1 on the box office charts last weekend. Our country continues its slow death.
I hope this never happens. Here comes the government again, kids, this time they are after your money if you want to get your tits enlarged. Some states are trying to put a tax on cosmetic surgeries, which should throw up red flags all over the country. Where does this kind of thing stop? This precedent could enable Big Brother to begin trying to tax us on all sorts of "luxury" things. This needs to be ended and the lawmakers trying to pass it need to be relieved of their duties and sent to rural Russia.
So they are going to have an election on Sunday in Iraq. My prediction? 13% turnout. They are, however, doing one thing much better than we do in the U.S. They are voting on a Sunday, rather than on a Tuesday. It seems like common sense would tell you that more people can vote if you hold the election on a day where most don't work, but if we hold the election on a weekday then the people who don't work or who may work night jobs, the people who may need government help more than others, will represent a larger percentage of the voting population than they would if it was held on a weekend. Those people, the ones not working or working low wage jobs, are going to vote for bigger government so they can receive the help they need, which, in turn, allows the government to continue its growth and its intrusion into the lives of Americans. We all want smaller government, even if you don't realize it, you do, take my word on this one. Someone with a giant hand need to come by and slap the government's wrist when they reach into the cookie jar one too many times.
Another Wisconsin wacko... This kid could be up for adoption. Any takers? I could for some poison with my dinner.
I know what some of you are looking for on here this morning... it will come, by class calls me now.
Until Later.
Monday, January 24, 2005
Anyway...
The word "anyways" -- let's talk about it:
Webster says that anyways and anyway have the same meaning and same part of speech. What is the purpose of putting an "s" on the end of the word? Right, there is no usefull purpose, and I'm guessing that anyways is a relatively recent addition to Webster's word catalog and was only put in because of its popularity with people who misuse it. Also, about the word, I bet shy people barely, if at all, use anyway/anyways. If you rarely speak, when are you going to have the chance to say, "So anyway, I was walking down the street when..." I'm guessing you will never hear a shy person so either of those words. Keep an ear out for it.
Hey, someone finish that example sentence for me: So anyway, I was walking down the street when... ... be creative ...
I received a question about my booze money totatl from the Middle Breidenbach Brother. Here's the thing, it was too much of a wake up call as to how much money I do blow on booze and at bars, so for the sake of fun, I'm scrapping the experiment. It's better for us all if I do that. Plus, for those of you whom I regularly buy drinks or shots for, do you really want me to quit the free-spending thing? Drink on.
Thursday night at the karaoke contest Mike sang and danced very well, but didn't win. Some dude who sang a Bon Jovi song won. I think he won because his song is better known than "Your Love" by The Outfield. I will excuse his win because he was wearing a Green Day shirt. The Paint Crew arrived around 7, some of us ate, I shot some really horrible pool, bought a glowing ice cube for 3 bucks cause a cute girl said it was for the kids and I'm weak, started drinking pitchers of beer. I think I bought 7 pitchers and drank probably half the beer. Suffice it to say, I was a little tipsy. I fell getting into my buddy's jeep. I fell when I woke up in the morning and called to say I would be in at break. It was ridiculous and an entirely great time.
Friday night we watched Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle. For a "dick and fart joke comedy," it was pretty good and really funny. I laughed out loud on several occasions. I don't think it is possible to review a movie like this without giving away the humor, so I'll just say Shotgun Anus. But the Cheetah thing was lame. Neil Patrick Harris. He went to high school with FPJ. Yeah, that's right, FPJ, do you know who that is?
I have a worthwhile link for you: Jesse's Blog. I live with him; he'll tell you about his bad beats and the things he wants to do before being graduated.
The song "Come on and Dance" by The Steve Miller Band has a great beginning and then just kind of shits on itself part way through. What's up with that?
I was playing poker last night. I had rockets, was all-in with 18 bucks pre-flop. Dude was all-in with 17. He hit two pair on the flop, K's and Q's. Fucker. I lost. What are you going to do?
Last night I played a game new to me: Liar's Poker. I was pretty fun, Jesse, Will, Adam and I sat around and played a few rounds. It's a game of experience and I had little, but I was catching on.
Saturday night Adam picked me up and we drove down to Platteville for the basketball game. The drive was four hours each way and the game was frustrating to watch. The guys were playing alright, but the coach had the team sitting in a zone for the entire second half, even when they got down by 8 and 10 points. At no point did they come out of and try to create a turnover or play some pressure D, they just let Platteville's guards play catch around the perimeter and run 30 seconds off the clock each possession. A coach has to give his team a chance to win, preferably the best chace possible, but with this coach I'll take any chance - but Saturday night he gave them very little chance. Son of a bitch.
On the way home Adam and I stopped in LaCrosse to have a drink with Schulz and some ladies. After two drinks each, we left and headed for home. Adam got pulled over for an improper turn and Cop gave him a field sobriety test, which he passed with flying colors. Exciting little moment. We got back to EC at about 3:20; I crashed immediately.
Last night I played too much Mario Golf, drank my entire 20 pack of Coors Light, and fucked around on the computer. Pretty lame night. Moving on...
...Today is Monday. No class 'til Wednesday. Time for a nap.
Until I Wake Up.
Webster says that anyways and anyway have the same meaning and same part of speech. What is the purpose of putting an "s" on the end of the word? Right, there is no usefull purpose, and I'm guessing that anyways is a relatively recent addition to Webster's word catalog and was only put in because of its popularity with people who misuse it. Also, about the word, I bet shy people barely, if at all, use anyway/anyways. If you rarely speak, when are you going to have the chance to say, "So anyway, I was walking down the street when..." I'm guessing you will never hear a shy person so either of those words. Keep an ear out for it.
Hey, someone finish that example sentence for me: So anyway, I was walking down the street when... ... be creative ...
I received a question about my booze money totatl from the Middle Breidenbach Brother. Here's the thing, it was too much of a wake up call as to how much money I do blow on booze and at bars, so for the sake of fun, I'm scrapping the experiment. It's better for us all if I do that. Plus, for those of you whom I regularly buy drinks or shots for, do you really want me to quit the free-spending thing? Drink on.
Thursday night at the karaoke contest Mike sang and danced very well, but didn't win. Some dude who sang a Bon Jovi song won. I think he won because his song is better known than "Your Love" by The Outfield. I will excuse his win because he was wearing a Green Day shirt. The Paint Crew arrived around 7, some of us ate, I shot some really horrible pool, bought a glowing ice cube for 3 bucks cause a cute girl said it was for the kids and I'm weak, started drinking pitchers of beer. I think I bought 7 pitchers and drank probably half the beer. Suffice it to say, I was a little tipsy. I fell getting into my buddy's jeep. I fell when I woke up in the morning and called to say I would be in at break. It was ridiculous and an entirely great time.
Friday night we watched Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle. For a "dick and fart joke comedy," it was pretty good and really funny. I laughed out loud on several occasions. I don't think it is possible to review a movie like this without giving away the humor, so I'll just say Shotgun Anus. But the Cheetah thing was lame. Neil Patrick Harris. He went to high school with FPJ. Yeah, that's right, FPJ, do you know who that is?
I have a worthwhile link for you: Jesse's Blog. I live with him; he'll tell you about his bad beats and the things he wants to do before being graduated.
The song "Come on and Dance" by The Steve Miller Band has a great beginning and then just kind of shits on itself part way through. What's up with that?
I was playing poker last night. I had rockets, was all-in with 18 bucks pre-flop. Dude was all-in with 17. He hit two pair on the flop, K's and Q's. Fucker. I lost. What are you going to do?
Last night I played a game new to me: Liar's Poker. I was pretty fun, Jesse, Will, Adam and I sat around and played a few rounds. It's a game of experience and I had little, but I was catching on.
Saturday night Adam picked me up and we drove down to Platteville for the basketball game. The drive was four hours each way and the game was frustrating to watch. The guys were playing alright, but the coach had the team sitting in a zone for the entire second half, even when they got down by 8 and 10 points. At no point did they come out of and try to create a turnover or play some pressure D, they just let Platteville's guards play catch around the perimeter and run 30 seconds off the clock each possession. A coach has to give his team a chance to win, preferably the best chace possible, but with this coach I'll take any chance - but Saturday night he gave them very little chance. Son of a bitch.
On the way home Adam and I stopped in LaCrosse to have a drink with Schulz and some ladies. After two drinks each, we left and headed for home. Adam got pulled over for an improper turn and Cop gave him a field sobriety test, which he passed with flying colors. Exciting little moment. We got back to EC at about 3:20; I crashed immediately.
Last night I played too much Mario Golf, drank my entire 20 pack of Coors Light, and fucked around on the computer. Pretty lame night. Moving on...
...Today is Monday. No class 'til Wednesday. Time for a nap.
Until I Wake Up.
